The macroeconomic determinants of stock price fluctuations in Amman Stock Exchange

The purpose of this study is to identify the key macroeconomic variables that affected stock price fluctuations in Amman Stock Exchange during the period 1980-2018. Using Augmented Dickeyfuller (ADF) test, it was found that the variables did not have the same degree of integration. According to Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey test, the residuals violated the constant variance assumption under Ordinary Least Square (OLS) model. Therefore, the study employed Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) methodology to analyze the model after taking the first difference of natural logarithm for all variables to be stationary at the same level and to show the fluctuation in the variables. It was found that fluctuations in portfolio investment and in industrial production index are statically significant to lead fluctuations in the stock price index in Amman Stock Exchange and they follow the same direction, whereas fluctuations in real effective exchange rate, real interest rate, and Brent crude oil prices were statically significant to lead fluctuations in the stock price index but in the opposite direction.