SIMULATION AND PREDICTION OF URBAN SPATIAL EXPANSION IN HIGHLY VIBRANT CITIES USING THE SLEUTH MODEL: A CASE STUDY OF AMMAN METROPOLITAN, JORDAN

over the last decade, Amman?s local authorities have faced challenges in meeting the needs of local populations due to unexpected rapid urbanization growth and the impact this has had on welfare and outdated urban infrastructure. Therefore, it is essential to model spatial dynamic growth to identify the land-use class of urbanized regions expansions to prepare for future urban demands. The present study addresses this need by exploring the application of the remotely- sensed data and cellular automation (CA) based SLEUTH model and its effectiveness in modelling of urban growth in highly Vibrant Metropolitan of Amman. the SLETUH model for Amman was successfully calibrated using the Optimum SLEUTH Metric (OSM) method based on archived remote sensing data from 1985 to 2015. The urban growth characteristics were determined using the urban rules derived from SLEUTH via calibration. SLEUTH?s probabilistic image of future urbanized lands of historical trend-based urban growth scenario was employed as dynamic factors for urbanization suitability mapping and landscape pattern analysis of the year 2040. The SLEUTH model predicts that Amman?s urban space will expand by 57km2 by 2040 (compared to 2015), resulting in a total area of 473.845 km2. Importantly, this research demonstrates that the issues experienced in Amman?s urban locations today will continue into the next two decades unless steps are taken to improve urban growth strategies and increase both environmental and urban action. Findings of the present study cooperate the government?s plan to demonstrate Jordan?s commitment to modernisation through the creation a new administrative city for national-level civil servants and government ministries.