Performance Evaluation and Stochastic Risk Analysis of Two 117 MW and 80 MW Grid-Connected Wind Power Plants Established in Jordan

Rapidly growing renewable energy installations require systematic performance assessment approaches to evaluate grid-connected wind systems. For nations heavily dependent on imported fossil fuels, like Jordan, wind power projects must be carefully planned, taking into account wind energy resource assessments for a given site. This paper presents techno-economic, environmental, and probabilistic performance analysis of two utility-scale wind power plants in southern Jordan: the 117 MW Tafilah wind farm and the 80 MW Maan wind farm. Operational data from both wind farms are assessed in terms of energy generation, availability, and plant economics as well as environmental impact. Tafilah wind farm was found to produce 362.55 GWh of electricity per year with a capacity factor (CF) of 35.855%. In comparison, the Maan wind farm generated 99.35 GWh/year with a capacity factor of 14.311%. Estimated availabilities for both plants were found to be around 89% and 87.12% for Tafilah and Maan wind farms, respectively. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) was calculated as 0.0659 JD/kWh and 0.126 JD/kWh with a benefit?cost ratio (BCR) of 1.134 and 0.517, and payback periods of 7 years and 13 years for Tafilah and Maan wind farms, respectively. Results demonstrate that, given current tariff rates, only the Tafilah wind farm is profitable. The corresponding annual emission savings due to Tafilah and Maan wind farms are estimated to be 312 t of CO?, 3.63 t of SO?, and 1.08 t of NO?, and 85 t of CO?, 0.99 t of SO?, and 0.30 t of NO?, respectively. Sensitivity analysis based on 5,000 synthetic wind speed scenarios generated using Monte Carlo simulation indicated steadier energy production (EP) range for Tafilah wind farm between 300 and 420 GWh (capacity factor range of 0.29?0.41) compared to Maan wind farm range of 56?150 GWh (capacity factor between 0.08 and 0.22). Results of this research suggest that higher wind speeds increase the electricity generation potential of wind farms in Jordan.