Uncertainty and Gravity Model for International Tourism Demand in Jordan: Evidence from Panel-GARCH model

This study identifies the determinants of international tourism in Jordan, and studying the uncertainty as one of these determinants. To do this, the study employed two approaches; Gravity model to identify the determinants of international tourism, and Panel-GARCH model to investigate the effect of uncertainty on the number of tourist arrivals to Jordan. In order to accomplish these objectives, annual time series from 2000-2014 for 22 countries were carried out. The empirical results indicate that the level of Jordanian development, infrastructure, language and familiarity with location have a positive impact on the number of tourist arrivals to Jordan. On contrast of that, cost of living, exchange rate, distance and uncertainty have negative impacts. Finally, income of importing countries and hotel capacity were found statistically significant.