Analyzing Wheat Production in Jordan: The Role of Population Dynamics, Climate Variability, and GIS-Based Projections

Wheat, a cornerstone of food security and the agricultural economy in Jordan, has experienced fluctuations in production dynamics. This volatility is attributed to population growth, climate variability, and the gradual integration of advanced agricultural technologies. As the population increases, the demand for wheat naturally increases, placing increasing pressure on local production capacities. This study aimed to analyze the impact of demographic and climatic factors such as rainfall and maximum and minimum temperatures on wheat production in Jordan during the period from 1995 to 2022. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques and statistical analysis methods, specifically Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), were used to analyze the relationship between wheat production and population over specific time periods. This study revealed an inverse correlation with the coefficient of determination (R2 = ?0.56, ?0.78, and ?0.89) for the northern, central, and southern regions of Jordan, respectively. The direct relationship between wheat production, rainfall, and temperature was explored, particularly in the southern regions of Jordan (R2 = 0.63 and 0.81), respectively. Overall, rainfall contributed 32.26% of the changes in wheat production, while minimum temperature contributed 30.74%. The effect of maximum temperature was less significant, explaining 13.24% of these changes. GWR tests confirmed the independence of these climatic factors, indicating the direct influence of each on wheat production. However, the overall decline in wheat production from 1995 to 2022 accounted for approximately 34.19% of production. This study recommends further research to delve deeper into the interaction between population growth, climate change, and agricultural practices, and to explore the potential for developing sustainable strategies to mitigate the decline in wheat production and ensure food security in Jordan.